Now that my undefeated file of selecting No. 13 seeds or decrease within the NCAA Tournament publicly continues to be intact after Furman’s victory over Virginia on Thursday, I’m deciding to not relaxation on my laurels and inform you all about one other prediction I made earlier this week. For followers of Deadspin’s Agree to Disagree video collection, this can be a choice I’ve already proclaimed on digicam. Auburn will upset the Midwest area’s No. 1 seed in Houston on Saturday. It’s not fairly the lopsided upset as selecting the Paladins or Saint Peter’s over Kentucky final yr, but it surely’s little doubt not what’ll be favored.
The Cougars seemed horrible towards one of many worst groups within the NCAA Tournament. Northern Kentucky bought out of a weak low-major within the Horizon League. The Norse genuinely impressed me final evening and held powerful with one of many supposed finest groups within the nation. Kelvin Sampson’s squad earned that No. 1 seed and was arguably probably the most constant workforce within the nation throughout the common season. And Houston both was wanting previous a workforce it knew it might simply defeat, or the upstart Norse really uncovered what a Marcus Sasser-less workforce appears to be like like.
If you’re taking the very best participant away from any nice workforce, it received’t be as mighty anymore. Purdue with out Zach Edey is a bubble workforce and is likely to be enjoying within the NIT proper now. Alabama with out Brandon Miller, which must be a actuality proper now with the off-court drama surrounding the Crimson Tide, would’ve gotten a robust seed in The Big Dance, however seemingly extra towards the 4-5 line. Sasser is that needle-mover for the Cougars. The drop-off with out the 6-foot-2 senior guard and seemingly NBA lottery decide due to a groin damage suffered within the American Athletic Conference Tournament final week, is clear. He was pulled at halftime by Sampson and Houston was inconsistent with out him.
Auburn had a real toss-up matchup with Iowa on paper. The Tigers have been at all times higher than their seeding, whereas Iowa wasn’t. The Hawkeyes have by no means had a long term within the event beneath Fran McCaffery and this yr’s Kris Murray-led squad was no totally different. The SEC outmuscled the Big Ten. There’s no approach round that. And Auburn might have thrown a couple of extra punches on the finish of the sport if wanted. In the nightcap, it was apparent by the tip of the sport how drained Northern Kentucky was. A workforce higher conditioned to play with Houston, which shall be each workforce the Cougars see the remainder of the season, will be capable to take higher benefit of a inclined, unmotivated squad. And if the dearth of drive isn’t actuality for UH, it didn’t present it towards the Norse. It additionally has an ideal probability for redemption towards Auburn. But nothing’s assured. And Bruce Pearl-coached groups normally don’t miss when on condition that form of alternative.
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It’s not clear if Sasser will play at 7:10 p.m. on TBS with a visit to the Sweet 16 on the road. It is obvious that if he performs, he received’t be at full well being, which is already a downgrade from what we’ve anticipated from the Cougars for many of this season. Auburn is a workforce that’s gone by way of a bunch of adversity this season and nonetheless discovered its approach safely into March Madness. It’s a unique sort of entice to outline the adversity for Houston. Saying the Cougars have been by way of none can be silly. Their paths of resistance have been examined in video games, with extra tangible rewards, like 11 extra wins than the Tigers this season, alongside the way in which. That’ll imply little come Saturday evening in Birmingham, a brief 110-mile journey from Auburn. And it may not be a house sport for the AU, but it surely ought to really feel prefer it from the gang. Houston’s strolling into enemy territory and I don’t suppose it’ll be sturdy sufficient to stroll out of the primetime matchup nonetheless with a season to play for.
